Opinion: What would a Trump or Harris win mean for Sudan?

By Abdel Moneim Sheikh Idris

Kamala Harris of the Democratic Party and Donald Trump of the Republican Party are competing to win the current 2024 elections to sit on the Oval Office for the next four years, so what does the victory of either of them means for Sudan in light of the current circumstances that the country is going through, according to the candidates’ declared policies and their previous and current positions towards Sudan?

Sudan is not a priority in US policy, says Mohamed Ali Saleh, a Sudanese journalist who has lived in the USA for half a century.

 But this does not mean that America is far from what is happening in Sudan, especially when it comes to its national security, something that all US administrations care about, regardless of whether they are Democratic or Republican, as previous experiences in Iraq, Somalia, Yemen, and Afghanistan have demonstrated.

What does a Trump victory mean for Sudan?

Candidate Donald Trump is declaring a clear “America First” policy by focusing on domestic issues such as security, immigration, and the economy. The Institute for the Study of America First summed it up by saying, “A plan for policies that keep America first, always.”

 In foreign relations, Trump is interested in the Israeli file, including the Abraham Accords, where he is working to include the largest number of Arab and Islamic countries to normalise with Israel.

During Donald Trump’s previous term from 2016 to 2020, there were important developments in US-Sudanese relations, as he issued an executive decision No. 13804, which eventually resulted in October 2020 in removing Sudan’s name from the US list of state sponsors of terrorism, and in return the Sudanese government agreed at the time to pay compensation to victims of terrorism amounting to $ 335 million.

Trump then announced on October 23, 2020, that Sudan may become the third Arab country to join the Abraham Normalisation Agreement with Israel, after the UAE and Bahrain.

Also coordinated by the United States, Gen Andelfattah El Burhan met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Uganda, as well as meetings inside Sudan with Israeli officials.

Trump said during his current campaign in October that “expanding the Abraham Accords will undoubtedly be a priority”  for his administration if he wins the election.

In an interview last month with Al Arabiya, Trump said he could have included 12 to 15 countries in the conventions if he had won the 2020 election.

Reuters had revealed that El Burhan met with Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen in Khartoum on February 2, 2023, secretly, and published a photo of their meeting on Monday.

Since General El Burhan is still in power in Sudan and Trump is still keen to expand the Abraham Accords, it is expected that there will be new steps in this context in light of the Israeli government’s keenness on normalisation with Sudan as well.

What does a Harris win mean for Sudan?

Unlike Trump, Democratic nominee Kamala Harris is upholding the legacy of previous Democratic governments of defending democracy around the world and fighting totalitarian regimes, saying in her speech to the Democratic convention last August: “As president, I will never hesitate to defend America’s security and principles, because in the ongoing struggle between democracy and tyranny, I know my position and I know where the United States belongs.”

As the vice president in the Biden administration, Harris is aware of the steps the administration has taken to stop the war in Sudan and continue the democratic transition process.

Last September, Harris discussed with UAE President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed the war in Sudan and the need to find a peaceful solution to it, calm the conflict, and provide humanitarian aid to those affected, according to Radio Dabanga, citing official sources.

This may mean that, if she wins the election, Harris will continue her efforts with the current administration to stop the conflict, restore the democratic transition, and deliver aid led by current US special envoy Tom Perello.

Fears that Sudan could become a haven for terrorism

Fears have recently increased that Sudan could become a haven for global terrorism.

In a study published last week by the African Defence Platform,  Western experts warned that “the chaos that has swept Sudan since the outbreak of war in April 2023 could make it a link to terrorism, linking violent extremists in the Sahel region to terrorist groups operating in Somalia and even Yemen.”

Just as the United States intervened to protect its national security in Somalia, 1992 and Afghanistan to eliminate al-Qaeda after the September 2021 attacks, in Yemen to eliminate al-Qaeda and in Iraq in 2003 to destroy “weapons of mass destruction”, it could intervene in Sudan if it actually happened and become a haven for terrorism due to its location in the middle of areas where these organisations are active, such as Boko Haram in Chad and its vicinity, Islamic youth in Kenya and Somalia, al-Qaeda in Yemen and a number of countries located in the vicinity of Red Sea.

Regardless of who wins the US presidency, Sudan is not expected to be a priority in US foreign policy because it has never happened before, but the difference will be a difference of amount, not type, and the results of the US presidential election will have effects on Sudan.