Sudan policy expert: Hemedti’s ‘chaotic’ address could indicate military escalation

Suliman Baldo, director of the Sudan Transparency and Policy Tracker (STPT), warns that the recent speech by Rapid Support Forces (RSF) Commander Lt Gen Mohamed Hamdan ‘Hemedti’ Dagalo marks a shift towards further military escalation in Sudan.

As reported by Dabanga yesterday, Hemedti delivered a 40-minute address via the RSF’s social media platforms, criticising several countries, including Egypt, and condemning the international community. He also acknowledged the Sudanese Armed Forces’ (SAF) recent gains in Jebel Moya, Sennar, and pledged continued escalation.

In an interview with Radio Dabanga’s Sudanese Files programme, broadcast today, Baldo* pointed out that Hemedti’s speech lacked any mention of negotiations or peaceful resolutions. “Instead, it called for further military mobilisation, urging soldiers to prepare for ‘Plan B’, signalling a potential escalation on all fronts.”

The timing of Hemedti’s speech coincided with army leaks regarding a major military campaign aimed at securing Khartoum within 72 hours, which Baldo interpreted as a reflection of growing frustration within the RSF due to military pressures on multiple fronts.

Recent developments have seen the Sudanese army gain control over key areas, including the strategic Jebel Moya, as well as the strategic Halfaya Bridge, El Kadaro, and parts of Khartoum North (Bahri) in Khartoum. Armed movements aligned with the SAF have also secured territory in northern El Fasher, the capital of North Darfur, and in West Darfur.

Despite these advances, Baldo does not foresee the conflict ending soon, “as neither side is likely to achieve a decisive military victory”. He predicted ongoing exchanges of control over strategic locations and prolonged fighting, warning that external support for both factions would only fuel further destruction.

Foreign interference

Hemedti launched a strong attack on Egypt, accusing it of conducting airstrikes against RSF positions in Jebel Moya. He also alleged that several countries were providing support to the SAF. Baldo argued that Sudan has become a battleground for foreign interference, which prolong the conflict and exacerbate the country’s destruction.

The STPT director cited investigations by independent research organisations, which have documented increased foreign involvement in the war. He noted that the UAE supplies the RSF with weapons, medical care, and evacuation services, “while there is clear evidence of Iranian, Russian, and Egyptian support for the SAF”.

The Ukrainan army meanwhile previously shared footage of its forces conducting drone strikes targeting “Russian mercenaries and their local terrorist partners” on Sudanese territory.

Egyptian officials, however, denied Hemedti’s accusations, stating that Egypt’s focus remains on stopping the war and protecting civilians. The UAE has also denied backing the RSF.

Disjointed speech

Baldo characterised Hemedti’s speech as “unusually long, marked by excessive repetition and a lack of coherence”. He pointed out contradictions in Hemedti’s statements, particularly his changing stance on the war’s causes and the role of international actors.

“Hemedti contradicted his earlier claims, now attributing the war to the framework agreement signed in December 2022, which he had previously described as a defence of democracy.” The agreement, endorsed by civilian forces and the SAF, sought to restore Sudan’s transitional period but collapsed shortly before the war broke out.

Regarding the US sanctions imposed on Hemedti’s younger brother, El Gouni (Algoney) Dagalo, Baldo called them largely symbolic. He argued that such sanctions have little impact on the behaviour of the RSF, the army, or the Islamic movement, noting that the defence industry continues to function despite sanctions from both the United States and the European Union. The European Union extended sanctions to six companies and individuals linked to both the army and the RSF in June.

Baldo concluded by expressing concerns about Hemedti’s leadership, suggesting his speech reveals a loss of control over RSF forces. “Hemedti’s references to the chaotic and criminal behaviour of his troops, including indiscriminate shootings, civilian casualties, and filmed human rights violations, raise alarms about potential war crimes. This indicates Hemedti’s dissatisfaction with his forces and his inability to command their behaviour effectively.”

* Dr Suliman Baldo is a renowned Sudanese expert in human rights and conflict resolution. He has held senior positions in leading organisations including Human Rights Watch and the International Crisis Group. Currently, Baldo serves as the executive director of the Sudan Transparency and Policy Tracker (STPT), an organisation dedicated to monitoring and analysing Sudan’s political and economic issues, with a particular focus on the ongoing conflict and its broader implications.