‘Sudan-Eritrea military alliance risks igniting tribal conflict’

Sudan’s Sovereignty Council leader and Commander-in-chief of the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), Lt Gen Abdelfattah El Burhan, concluded a one-day visit on Tuesday to Eritrea’s capital, Asmara, amid escalating turmoil in Sudan. El Burhan, accompanied by ministers of his newly formed cabinet, met with Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki. Talks focused on security coordination, military collaboration, and economic ties, resulting in agreements reaffirming Eritrea’s willingness to play a modest but tactical role in assisting its neighbour.

President Afwerki reiterated Eritrea’s position that Sudan’s crisis must be resolved by its own people, with regional support. He stressed Sudan’s sovereignty, stability, and unity as vital for the region.

El Burhan expressed gratitude for Eritrea’s support during Sudan’s war and highlighted his intent to strengthen bilateral relations. 

Observers believe the visit sought to secure Eritrea as a key ally of Sudan’s armed forces while addressing the sensitive issue of armed groups operating in Eritrea’s western region.

Eritrea hosts camps for eastern Sudanese armed movements, with factions like the Beja Congress and United Popular Front for Liberation and Justice aligning with Sudan’s military, deploying troops to eastern Sudan. 

Others remain neutral, focused on defending their local territories. Eritrea, a staunch ally of the SAF, is pushing for a “security belt” along its borders to prevent conflict spill over.

Economic cooperation was a crucial agenda item. Discussions included reopening border crossings, such as the Kassala-El Lafa highway, where 80 per cent of revitalisation work is reportedly complete, aiming to boost trade.

Afwerki’s commitment to regional stability extends to military readiness, signalling potential intervention if Sudan’s war escalates to eastern states like Kassala, El Gedaref, or the Red Sea.

Political analyst Khaled Mohamed Taha told Radio Dabanga that Eritrea’s actions align with its broader security and economic interests, particularly in the Red Sea corridor.

‘Tensions in eastern Sudan‘

Eastern Sudan has emerged as a hotspot of escalating tensions as of late, with multiple armed groups, including the Eastern Battalion and the Beja Congress, deploying forces in coordination with the SAF. These movements, many of which are tied to Eritrean training camps, raise fears of clashes among armed factions and the shift into potential tribal violence.

Amin Daoud’s Eastern Battalion, previously neutral, now appears aligned with the SAF, intensifying concerns that eastern militias are being integrated into SAF operations against the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF).

Observers warn this could transform the SAF-RSF conflict into a broader tribal war, pulling in historically allied tribes from neighbouring regions and across Eritrea’s borders.

The establishment of Eritrean training camps for groups like the Eastern Sudan Liberation Forces, Beja Congress, and Darfuri factions adds a dangerous layer to the region’s militarisation.

Political analysts highlight that this militarisation, combined with eastern Sudan’s geostrategic importance which is home to vital Red Sea ports and resource-rich territories, potentially exacerbating tribal polarisation and posing a significant threat to stability.

Sudan’s burgeoning alliance with Eritrea, marked by recent agreements on military coordination and border security, highlights the risk of a deepening the militarisation and fragmentation within eastern Sudan.