Sudan activists: El Gezira violence ‘likely to ignite catastrophic tribal alignment’

The Advocacy Group for Peace in Sudan (AGPS) issued a call for immediate global action to address a surge in tribal mobilisation across Sudan. In an urgent public statement released yesterday, AGPS cautioned that without decisive intervention, Sudan could spiral into mass violence reminiscent of the Rwandan genocide.

“We recall the tragedy of Rwanda in 1994,” AGPS warned, “as a reminder of what unchecked tribal mobilisation can lead to.” Urging swift action to curb hate speech and deescalate tensions, the group cautioned that Sudan faces “a comparable human catastrophe” if violence continues.

With divisions widening, AGPS stressed, “Sudan stands on the brink,” appealing for unified action to “build a future rooted in peace” and to protect the nation’s diverse heritage from irreversible loss.

Recent weeks have seen an alarming rise in ethnically motivated and intercommunal violence, as the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) reportedly attack villages in El Gezira. These assaults have resulted in civilian casualties, atrocities, and widespread displacement in El Butana. 

The RSF’s reprisals appear to be in response to the defection of their local commander, Abu Agla Keikil, to the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) along with some of his troops. Residents have previously warned of severe retaliatory campaigns by the RSF, raising fears of a brutal cycle of vengeance and civil strife.

The SAF have also intensified their military campaign, escalating airstrikes on civilian areas in Darfur, Kordofan, and El Gezira. These strikes have caused extensive loss of life, severe infrastructure damage, and the widespread devastation of livestock.

“The escalation of war narratives by both sides is fuelling ethnically charged rhetoric,” AGPS reported, emphasising that this divisive discourse has spurred dangerous regional and tribal mobilisation.

AGPS highlighted the influence of local leaders, poets, and public figures who are stoking calls for retribution, sparking resentment that threatens to tip the conflict into an uncontrollable tribal war. 

The advocacy group warns that, without intervention, these dynamics are likely to result in widespread massacres throughout El Gezira, the Nile River and Northern states, as well as in Darfur, Kordofan, and Eastern Sudan.

Calling for accountability, AGPS urged Sudanese leaders, resistance committees, and both national and international institutions to act, stating, “The warring factions and agitators must be held accountable for the genocidal crimes starkly looming on the horizon.”