Fears grow of ‘catastrophic bloodbath’ should RSF advance on North Darfur capital

Sudan in general and the people of Darfur in particular are following with great concern the developments in the situation around the city of El Fasher, the capital of North Darfur, and the historic capital of greater Darfur. The threat of bloody confrontation looms, threatening heavy bloodshed and a tragic humanitarian catastrophe that may exceed what the Sudanese have witnessed so far, should the Rapid Support Forces RSF decide to attack the army forces stationed in El Fasher.

Fears are growing as pressure mounts on El Fasher after the RSF seized army garrisons in Nyala, Zalingei and El Geneina in late October and took control of El Daein on Tuesday, making El Fasher the last redoubt of the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) in Greater Darfur.

Regarding rumours of an imminent RSF attack on El Fasher, Mousa Khaddam, advisor to the RSF commander, told Radio Dabanga that they could not disclose any military plans in this regard, stressing that their forces were attacking army headquarters and not cities. He stressed the need to take into account the rapid support for the humanitarian and social situation and the rights of the armed struggle movements in El Fasher. He affirmed their commitment to the implementation of the Juba Peace Agreement.

He downplayed the impact on the ground of a number of movements’ announcement of abandoning neutrality and siding with the army, saying that senior military leaders of the armed struggle movements remained neutral.

As previously reported by Radio Dabanga, the Sudan Liberation Movement under leadership of Minni Arko Minawi (SLM-MM), and the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) led by Jibril Ibrahim, have announced their renunciation of the neutrality pledged in the September 2020 Juba Peace Agreement, and their preparedness “to participate in military operations on all fronts without hesitation”.

JEM leader Jibril Ibrahim denied at a press conference in Port Sudan last week the relationship of their announcement to abandon neutrality with the rumors of the attack on El Fasher, stressing at the same time the importance of the city and its symbolism as the capital of the Darfur region.

The population of El Fasher exceeds a million people, in addition to about 500,000 displaced people in the camps of Abuja, Abu Shouk and Zamzam on the outskirts of the city, in addition to hundreds of thousands of displaced people from neighbouring villages, towns like Kutum and Kabkabiya, other state capitals, especially Nyala, El Geneina, and even Khartoum due to the war over the past few months.

The Humanitarian Aid Commission (HAC) in North Darfur said in a press circular at the beginning of November that El Fasher is home to 17,581 families (91,820) people fleeing the war from various towns.

It pointed to the increase in the number of displaced people daily in shelters with the lack of humanitarian aid, and noted the displacement of former displaced people from the camps of Abu Shouk and Abuja to schools south of El Fasher.

HAC confirmed the overcrowding of all schools in the southern sector of El Fasher city, with the number of displaced people increasing daily and the lack of shelter materials, especially tents. UNHCR pointed to the delay in humanitarian aid, especially foodstuffs, by the World Food Program, and the lack of assistance by organisations due to the closure of banks.

Heavy confrontation

It is likely that the military confrontation in the city, if it occurs, will have serious humanitarian, political and economic consequences, due to the presence of a significant force of the joint forces of the Darfuri armed struggle movements, led by the forces of the Sudan Liberation Movement led by Minni Minawi, who recently decided to abandon the position of neutrality and enter the battle on the side of the army forces.

The majority of Minawi’s forces consist of one of the main tribes in North Darfur, the Zaghawa, to which a large percentage of the population of El Fasher also belong. This threatens to turn the battle of El Fasher into a civil confrontation on the part of the Arab tribes that support and constitute most of the strength of the RSF and the tribesmen that make up Minawi’s forces and other rebel movements in North Darfur.

In a previous interview with Radio Dabanga, Adeeb Abdelrahman, former governor of Central Darfur and head of People for People, warns of all-out war if the RSF attacks El Fasher.

He said El Fasher has ethnic intersections that could lead to all-out war. “El Fasher is like a hair between peace and war, and that if the armed movements that signed the peace lose El Fasher, it would mean the end of the Juba agreement.

Toby Harrod, UN deputy humanitarian coordinator for Sudan, said hundreds of thousands of residents and displaced people are now at high risk in El Fasher, with the deteriorating security situation, food and water shortages, and limited services.

In a post on X platform (formerly Twitter), he warned of the dire consequences and catastrophic impact if the killing broke out in order to take control of the city, and called on the parties to commit to protecting civilians and respecting international humanitarian law. Avoid fighting in El Fasher.

In the face of this complex reality that can explode at any moment, some community figures and leaders of civil administrations in the city are making unremitting efforts to prevent the explosion and reached an agreement several weeks ago to stop clashes between the two parties inside the city, provided that the Rapid Support Forces remain on the eastern side of the city, while the Sudanese Armed Forces are stationed on the western side of it, where the army headquarters is located, while the Joint Protection Forces of the armed movements are responsible for protecting the city center, markets and government institutions.

Many in Darfur are counting on the continuation of these community efforts and their success in reaching understandings that protect the historic capital of Darfur and the center of the movement of humanitarian supplies throughout the Greater Darfur region, from the bloody military confrontation.

Unfortunately, such efforts, according to local experiences in Nyala, Zalingei, El Geneina and El Daein, have not succeeded in preventing bloodshed and have only delayed the confrontation for a few days or weeks.

The development of the military situation throughout Sudan may tempt the the Rapid Support Forces to take control of the last strongholds of the government forces in Darfur, then Minawi’s forces may not find it necessary to enter the battle against the Rapid Support Forces in defense of their people and interests in El Fasher.

Such a potentially tragic development would bring to mind, and perhaps on the ground as well, what happened in Darfur between 2002 and 2005 in terms of ethnic and racial confrontations, war crimes, crimes against humanity and genocide in an even more horrific and brutal way.