El Fasher and Zamzam camp shelling: Yale HRL report confirms RSF heavy artillery presence in North Darfur

In the wake of consistent testimony of heavy shelling of the North Darfur capital El Fasher, and the nearby ZamZam camp for internally displaced people over the past days, a new report published on Friday by the Yale School of Public Health’s Humanitarian Research Lab (HRL), which includes satellite imagery, and cites coverage by Radio Dabanga, confirms “large-scale displacement of an unknown number of civilians from Zamzam IDP camp following repeated heavy artillery bombardment over 12 days by Rapid Support Forces (RSF)”.

As reported by Radio Dabanga last week, at least seven people were killed in southwestern El Fasher on Monday due to artillery shelling, while at least one person died in Sudanese Air Force strikes on Tuesday that destroyed the Tijani zawiya in eastern El Fasher. Sudan War Monitor estimates that nearly 200 people were killed this week due to airstrikes in North Darfur. The Yale report assesses the death toll of 13 December at 73, with 376 injured.

The RSF also resumed heavy artillery attacks on Zamzam camp on Wednesday morning, according to sources from the camp, who told Radio Dabanga that at least eight people were killed, many injured, and extensive damage caused to homes. While residents accuse the RSF of targeting civilians, the RSF claims they are targeting Sudanese Joint Force (formerly the Darfur Joint Force) bases in the camp, and accuse their opponents of using displaced civilians as human shields.

Satellite imagery accompanying a report published on Friday by the Yale School of Public Health’s Humanitarian Research Lab (Yale HRL) in the USA, which includes several citations of community-driven Radio Dabanga coverage, corroborated the presence of heavy AH4 155mm howitzer artillery pieces, capable of firing up to five shells per minute with a range of up to 40 kilometres.

The latest report corroborates the findings of an earlier Yale HRL report 10 days ago, that reveal the scale of destruction inflicted by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) attack on Zamzam camp, which houses between 500,000 and one million people.

Yale HRL has identified and located four heavy artillery pieces consistent with an AH4 155 mm howitzer. “Based on available data, Yale HRL assesses that these artillery pieces are likely engaged in the ongoing bombardment campaign on Zamzam, which has reportedly killed 73 people and injured 376 others as of 13 December… This marks the first time that these weapons have been identified in the current conflict in Sudan. According to publicly available sources reviewed by HRL, the United Arab Emirates is the only country known to have purchased the AH4 from China.”

The Yale HRL report underscores that “many civilians are still trapped in El Fasher and Zamzam. They are subject to ongoing attacks, including those from the heavy artillery positioned within range of both locations. Some civilians are attempting to escape along remote and dangerous routes. Individuals who were able to leave Zamzam likely have extremely limited resources to complete this journey. In a region already suffering famine and near-famine conditions, the capacity of any location to support large numbers of IDPs is unknown.”

Evacuation from Zamzam

Yale HRL identifies a large-scale evacuation of internally displaced people (IDPs) from Zamzam camp in satellite imagery captured on 12 December 2024. This convoy includes vehicles, carts likely pulled by donkeys, and people on foot fleeing to the southeast. This is the most significant displacement exiting the area that Yale HRL has identified through satellite imagery analysis since attacks on Zamzam started on 1 December 2024. There is observed activity consistent with displacement near Zamzam that Yale HRL is not releasing due to human security concerns.

Yale HRL has assessed significant freedom of movement restrictions between Zamzam and Tawilah, North Darfur since 1 December 2024, when Zamzam IDP camp was first attacked. These restrictions include increased checkpoint activity and roadblocks  along the road between Zamzam and Tawilah.

RSF Artillery

Yale HRL identifies the presence of four heavy artillery pieces located approximately 25 km northeast of El Fasher and 35km from Zamzam IDP camp. These artillery pieces are consistent with a Norinco AH4 with maximum operational range of 40 km. No other artillery has been observed in available satellite imagery within range capable of conducting these fire missions. These four heavy artillery pieces consistent with AH4 are first visible in satellite imagery on 11 November 2024. Three of the four artillery have maintained a continuous ongoing presence in satellite imagery between 11 November – 13 December 2024. One artillery piece is absent between 17 November – 9 December 2024, and an identical artillery piece returns to the location and is visible in satellite imagery on 10 December 2024. All four artillery pieces have pointed their gun barrels along a southwest vector when present in at least two identified positions since 17 November 2024. El Fasher and Zamzam are within firing range of a Norinco AH4 from these positions. All four artillery pieces were located outside visibly populated areas throughout the period of observation.

These artillery pieces are assessed to be consistent with an AH4 based on dimensions, the configuration of the trails (legs), and its towing configuration and the size and density of the recoil system. Yale HRL analyzed a range of alternatives from the known inventories that have been deployed in Sudan over the past 30 years. These candidate artillery pieces include the D30 (seen in El Fasher and in other contexts across Sudan), the M-46, and the D-74. Other artillery including the M777 and others were considered after Yale HRL dismissed the D-30, M-46, and D-74 as candidates. All other candidates were dismissed based on (a) towing configuration; (b) barrel length); (c) trail configuration; and (d) the size and density of the recoil system. The AH4 is assessed to be consistent with the artillery pieces present over the M777 based on (c) the trail configuration and (d) the size and density of the recoil system.

Yale HRL’s high-confidence assessment that these weapons are consistent with an AH4 was determined and reviewed by multiple Yale HRL analysts. Yale HRL’s AH4 assessment was then reviewed and confirmed by three external experts, each with decades of experience identifying comparable weapons in satellite imagery. These outside experts independently verified Yale HRL’s weapon typing as consistent with an AH4.

The AH4 155m howitzer has a 40 km maximum range; however, it is more effective at a 25 km range.8 The AH4 is produced by China North Industries Group Corporation Limited (Norinco), a Chinese company and similar to the United Kingdom/United States-manufactured M777. The M777 is known to be operated by Australia, Brazil, Canada, Colombia, India, Saudi Arabia, Ukraine, and United States.9 The UAE is the only known entity to have publicly purchased or be operating the AH4 as of February 2019,10 and it has been reportedly used in Yemen.11 Yale HRL has not identified another publicly known operator of the AH4 other than the UAE and China.12 The United States Army’s OE Data Integration Network (ODIN TRADOC) has identified that the AH4’s proliferation is currently only known to include China and United Arab Emirates as of “Proliferation: China, United Arab Emirates.”13

Attacks on Zamzam

Yale HRL corroborates reports of ongoing bombardment of Zamzam IDP Camp. Analysis of satellite imagery shows conflict-related damage from likely RSF shelling to structures in Zamzam IDP Camp between 1-5 and 9-11 December 2024. These findings corroborate reports that Zamzam has been attacked at least three times since Yale HRL’s latest report on 3 December 2024.14 On 13 December 2024, the Ministry of Health in North Darfur reported that artillery shelling since 1 December had killed 73 people and injured 376 others.15 This number may be an underestimate.

Attacks on El Fasher

Additional conflict-related damage in El Fasher is also visible in satellite imagery. Analysis of satellite imagery between 3-5 December 2024 shows conflict-related damage to the livestock market, as well as new munition impacts and thermal scarring at the SAF 6th Division Base in El Fasher. These findings corroborate local media reports of RSF shelling toward the livestock market and 6th Division during this time period.16 Analysis of satellite imagery between 6-8 December 2024 shows damage to the State Radio and Television Authority, corroborating reports of an RSF suicide drone attack that damaged these buildings and facility equipment on 8 December 2024.17 Yale HRL also identifies conflict-related damage to the old UNAMID compound, located on at the southern exit of the B-26 road to Zamzam IDP camp and outside the Al-Saudi hospital between 3-5 December and 5-6 December 2024, respectively.

Human Security Analysis

The ongoing bombardment of Zamzam IDP camp will continue to result in civilian casualties, including fatalities, and increase the level of displacement of civilians from Zamzam into the surrounding area and beyond. The displacement of civilians from Zamzam IDP camp will likely make an already highly vulnerable population that has been deprived of basic nutrition for months even more vulnerable to attack, illness, and death from lack of basic humanitarian assistance. The current situation is untenable for civilians trapped in Zamzam, El Fasher, and other IDP camps as well as those civilians Yale HRL is monitoring fleeing from the area. The international community must act now if civilian lives are to be protected and urgently needed humanitarian assistance is to be provisioned, the report says.